AI capability claims

OpenAI funded the math exam, then announced a 25%. The people who wrote it measured 10%.

December 2024, o3 launch day: "just over a fourth" of FrontierMath, the hardest math benchmark going. April 2025: Epoch AI, the outfit that built FrontierMath, tests the released o3 and gets about 10%. OpenAI's figure came from an internal version running "aggressive test-time compute," and Epoch adds that the two runs may not even have used the same problem set. One more line from the record: OpenAI funded FrontierMath, disclosed on the day o3 was announced. So — which 25%?

by WeirdTrue · 2026-09-22

TechCrunch's report on the gap between OpenAI's o3 score and Epoch AI's
Photo: TechCrunch

Claims

#1 OpenAI, o3 announcement (as reported by TechCrunch) said on 2024-12-20 · source

o3 could answer just over a fourth of the questions on FrontierMath.
Partially contradictedVersion 2 · Model qwen-max · verdict_v1 · ai-claims@2 · 2026-09-23 06:12

OpenAI did announce a score of over 25% for o3 on FrontierMath, but Epoch AI's independent test of the publicly released model showed a significantly lower score of around 10%. The discrepancy suggests that the initial claim by OpenAI might have been based on an internal version with different settings. Additionally, Epoch AI, the creator of FrontierMath, was funded by OpenAI, which raises questions about the independence of the benchmark. These points lead to the conclusion that the claim is partially contradicted.

Citations

  • techcrunch.com: “"We're seeing [internally], with o3 in aggressive test-time compute settings, we're able to get over 25%."”
  • techcrunch.com: “Epoch AI, the research institute behind FrontierMath, released results of its independent benchmark tests of o3 on Friday. Epoch found that o3 scored around 10%, well below OpenAI's highest claimed score.”
  • techcrunch.com: “Epoch AI, a nonprofit primarily funded by Open Philanthropy, a research and grantmaking foundation, revealed on December 20 that OpenAI had supported the creation of FrontierMath.”

What would change this

  • Direct evidence from OpenAI confirming the exact configuration and settings used for the internal version of o3 that achieved the 25% score.
  • A detailed explanation from Epoch AI on how the differences in the testing environment (such as compute, scaffold, and problem set) contributed to the lower score in their independent test.
Earlier versions (1)
  • Partially contradicted v1 · qwen-max · 2026-09-22 15:57

    The evidence supports that OpenAI did announce a score of over 25% for o3 on FrontierMath. However, Epoch AI's independent test of the publicly released model showed a significantly lower score of around 10%. This discrepancy suggests that the initial claim may have been based on an internal version with different settings. Additionally, Epoch AI's funding by OpenAI and its access to the problems raise questions about the independence of the benchmark. These points lead to the conclusion that the claim is partially contradicted.

Evidence on this claim

Evidence (6)

Evidence on the whole case

None. Evidence tied to a specific claim is listed under that claim.

Discussion (0)

About the evidence, not the topic: what is missing, whether a source holds up, how a claim should be worded so it can be adjudicated. Nothing here reaches the verdict — only sourced evidence does.

No one has raised anything about the evidence yet.

Timeline

  1. 2026-09-23 06:12 · AI verdict v2 on claim #1: Partially contradicted (newly cited: techcrunch.com, newly cited: techcrunch.com, newly cited: techcrunch.com, 1 unchanged re-adjudications folded)
  2. 2026-09-23 06:08 · WeirdTrue added evidence from arcprize.org on claim #1
  3. 2026-09-23 06:08 · WeirdTrue added evidence from arcprize.org on claim #1
  4. 2026-09-23 06:08 · WeirdTrue added evidence from techcrunch.com on claim #1
  5. 2026-09-23 06:08 · WeirdTrue added evidence from techcrunch.com on claim #1
  6. 2026-09-23 06:08 · WeirdTrue added evidence from techcrunch.com on claim #1
  7. 2026-09-23 06:08 · WeirdTrue added evidence from techcrunch.com on claim #1
  8. 2026-09-22 15:56 · WeirdTrue added evidence from arcprize.org
  9. 2026-09-22 15:56 · WeirdTrue added evidence from techcrunch.com
  10. 2026-09-22 15:56 · WeirdTrue added evidence from techcrunch.com
  11. 2026-09-22 15:56 · WeirdTrue added claim #1 by OpenAI, o3 announcement (as reported by TechCrunch)
  12. 2026-09-22 15:56 · WeirdTrue opened the case
OpenAI funded the math exam, then announced a 25%. The people who wrote it measured 10%. · WeirdTrue